The number of homes for sale in Big Bear rose significantly in May, the second straight month we’ve seen the increase. Combine that with the 55 homes sold in May, the lowest number we’ve seen since January 2009, and it is not the type of combination you want if you are looking for an improving real estate market in Big Bear. One of the bright spots for sellers has been the limited inventory, or competition. But, that is slowly going dim.
Big Bear Home Sales
Home sales in May were down 28% when compared to the April sales (55 v. 76). Year over year, sales are down 5 % from May 2009 (55 v. 58). Compared to May 2008, sales were down 19%! Here’s why this is big news – sales have been hovering in the 70+ range, and have been better than 2009 and 2008 numbers. May 2010 was the first month in a long time where the the year over year monthly sales were down. Not a super big deal yet, but if we see this continue, it could be signs of other slow down in sales.
23, or 42%, of the 55 home sales in Big Bear were bank owned, the same percentage as last month. 40-50% per month is about the average we’ve been seeing for a while now.
6 of the sales, or 11%, were short sales, which is 3% less than last month. For the amount of short sales on the market, about 6% of the total market, this is in line. The fact still remains, with all the news and hype you hear about short sales, they make up a small percentage of what sells every month. 80-90% of what is selling in Big Bear is either REO (bank owned) or traditional (organic) sellers.
29, or 47%, of the Big Bear home sales in May 2010 were organic, or traditional sellers – an increase of 3% from last month. Organic sellers continue to make up over 85% of the available inventory, yet only about half of what is selling every month. Buyers are more attracted to the bank owned and short sale properties as they believe that is where the deals can be found. Most of the time they are right. If you are a traditional seller, you’ve got to compete with the REOs and short sales or else you won’t sell.
Big Bear Home Prices
The median sales price was up from $181,250 in April to $207,500 in May, a 14% increase. Year over year, the median sales price was down 8% from the May 2009 median. Still a lot of volatility out there in the market when it comes to prices – all over the board.
The average sales price for homes sold in May 2010 was $251,401, up 10% from the April number of $229,149. Year over year, however, the average sales price is down 19% from the May 2009 average price of $309,806.
Homes Currently on the Market
As mentioned in the opening, this is probably the biggest story of the month. For the second straight month, the number of homes for sale in Big Bear rose pretty significantly month over month. A 16% increase (789 vs. 681) is double what we saw last month. Part of what has been keeping this market going, and prices somewhat level, has been the low inventory. Higher inventory means more competition and lowering of prices so keep tabs on this number. One thing’s for sure, inventory is increasing in Big Bear. This should open up some more options for buyers, and put a little softening in the prices.
It is important to note, however, that the year over year number of homes for sale in Big Bear is still down 19% from May 2009 (789 vs. 902). Take a look at the graph below – last year at this time we saw a leveling effect, very little gain. Compare that to this year and the big jump. Anybody else interested by that?
Buyers – the fact still remains that if the one special deal comes up, you gotta move quickly. Though the inventory is increasing, the deals are still going quickly.
Time will tell what is going to happen this summer. Will we get over 1000 homes for sale in Big Bear? Let me know your thoughts.
Big Bear Home Sales – Thru May 2010
| Month and Year | # Homes For Sale | Median Asking Price | # Homes Sold | Median Sales Price | Average Sales Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2010 | 789 | $299,000 | 55 | $207,500 | $251,401 |
| April 2010 | 681 | $289,900 | 76 | $181,250 | $229,149 |
| Mar 2010 | 633 | $279,900 | 74 | $219,500 | $256,236 |
| Feb 2010 | 617 | $285,000 | 62 | $180,000 | $254,124 |
| Jan 2010 | 624 | $298,750 | 57 | $162,500 | $216,260 |
| Dec 2009 | 661 | $289,900 | 80 | $227,500 | $312,925 |
| Nov 2009 | 709 | $299,900 | 91 | $219,900 | $257,895 |
| Oct 2009 | 765 | $299,900 | 94 | $206,500 | $294,916 |
| Sept 2009 | 807 | $310,000 | 95 | $184,900 | $239,625 |
| Aug 2009 | 864 | $313,000 | 79 | $178,000 | $250,120 |
| July 2009 | 909 | $309,000 | 87 | $225,000 | $280,787 |
| June 2009 | 927 | $310,000 | 79 | $252,000 | $293,661 |
| May 2009 | 902 | $316,000 | 58 | $226,000 | $309,806 |
| April 2009 | 894 | $300,000 | 63 | $205,000 | $243,669 |
| Mar 2009 | 893 | $299,950 | 58 | $177,000 | $287,996 |
| Feb 2009 | 889 | $309,000 | 58 | $215,500 | $293,295 |
| Jan 2009 | 902 | $319,000 | 51 | $220,000 | $272,571 |
| Dec 2008 | 956 | $320,905 | 44 | $242,250 | $348,906 |
| Nov 2008 | 1032 | $325,000 | 50 | $240,287 | $329,953 |
| Oct 2008 | 1078 | $329,000 | 77 | $255,000 | $343,234 |
| Sept 2008 | 1109 | $328,500 | 82 | $224,500 | $266,170 |
| Aug 2008 | 60 | $282,500 | $328,393 | ||
| July 2008 | 63 | $205,000 | $277,250 | ||
| June 2008 | 62 | $247,500 | $319,579 | ||
| May 2008 | 68 | $288,450 | $356,370 |
Year-to-Date comparisons – Sales are up 13% from 2009, and 40% from 2008. The median and average prices are each down 11% and 14% respectively from 2009, while compared to 2008 – down 36% and 34% respectively.
Prices still look to be in the 2003/2004 range. Interesting to see how many homes we were selling back in 2003-2006 and compare the prices. We were selling over twice as many homes in 2004, the market was a lot more active, yet prices were about the same as they are now. Compare that to 2007 and 2008, where sales were the same or less than they are now, but price were much higher. I guess it really does not matter how many homes are selling, sellers just want someone to “show them the money!”
Year to Date Comparison (1/1 – 5/31)
| Year | # of Homes Sold | Median Sales Price | Average Sales Price | Days on Market | List Price to Sales Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 324 | $185,000 | $241,624 | 129 | 96% |
| 2009 | 288 | $208,750 | $281,027 | 132 | 94% |
| 2008 | 231 | $286,900 | $366,669 | 136 | 94% |
| 2007 | 351 | $315,000 | $410,399 | 126 | 96% |
| 2006 | 471 | $320,000 | $401,540 | 76 | 97% |
| 2005 | 636 | $265,500 | $331,560 | 83 | 98% |
| 2004 | 701 | $215,000 | $260,600 | 90 | 97% |
| 2003 | 600 | $174,450 | $216,206 | 54 | 98% |
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* Note: The charts above are updated on a monthly basis. They represent single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area or home sales not listed in the Big Bear MLS.
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Big Bear Home Sales – April 2010
Thanks Tyler for all the stats and info. Very informative and helpful. I hope things get better!