Big Bear home sales hit their highest mark this year with a total of 93 sales in November. The median sales price rose considerably, up 32% from October, while average sales price remained stable.
Big Bear Home Sales
Home sales in November (93) were up 18% when compared to the October sales (79). Year over year, sales were up just 2% from November 2009 (91).
26, or 28%, of the 93 sales were bank owned, down 12% from last month.
16 of the sales, or 17%, were short sales, which is 8% more than last month and the highest month I can recall for short sales.
November was another solid month for organic sellers. 51, or 55%, of the Big Bear home sales in November were organic, or traditional sellers – an increase of 4% from last month. Organic sellers continue to make up over 85% of the available inventory for sale, which is a pretty large chuck. Compared to the amount that are selling every month, there is still an oversupply. Buyers are more attracted to the bank owned and short sale properties as they believe that is where the deals can be found, and many times they are correct.
If you are a traditional seller, you have got to keep this in mind. A lot of times your competition is not the neighbor down the street, but rather the buyer’s mindset.
Big Bear Home Prices
The median sales price was up from $176,000 in October to $232,000 in November, a 32% increase. This number continues to bounce around in the range of $160,000 and $232,000. Year over year, the median sales price was up 5% from the November 2009 median.
So, are prices going up in Big Bear? I still say, “no.” While it is encouraging to see a jump in month over month and year over year prices, with such a small amount of data, it is hard to draw any conclusions. Take a look at the chart below to see the zig-zag direction of pricing over the past 8 months as an example of the uncertainty with pricing.
Here’s what I know – once we see a large jump in sales, an increased demand, then we will see prices start to increase. Just like it took several years for prices to drop after we saw sales starting to drop in the latter part of 2005 thru 2006, the same will occur with prices going up. Sales will need to pick up on a consistent basis for 6-12 months, then we will start to see prices increase. We have yet to see a consistent pick up in sales.
The average sales price for homes sold in November was $239,401, down less that 1% from the October number of $240,034. Year over year, the average sales price was down 7% from the November 2009 average price of $257,895.
Homes Currently on the Market
After peaking in August, inventory has been dropping steadily the past three months.
Month over month, we saw a 5% decrease (715 vs. 756) in the amount of available homes for sale in Big Bear. Inventory is down 20% from the peak we saw in August. Expect to continue to see this number dwindle as we head into the winter holidays and the 4 slowest months of the year, January thru April. While people fall in love with Big Bear because of the snow, they don’t necessarily buy homes when it is on the ground 🙂
Last year at this time, there were 709 homes on the market in Big Bear. So, relatively the same amount as now.
Here’s the breakdown of the current listing inventory – Organic, bank owned, and short sales.
Big Bear Home Sales – Thru Nov 2010
| Month and Year | # Homes For Sale | Median Asking Price | # Homes Sold | Median Sales Price | Average Sales Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2010 | 715 | $265,000 | 93 | $232,000 | $239,401 |
| Oct 2010 | 756 | $262,450 | 79 | $176,000 | $240,034 |
| Sept 2010 | 837 | $268,000 | 84 | $200,000 | $286,757 |
| Aug 2010 | 894 | $275,000 | 70 | $197,500 | $279,216 |
| July 2010 | 860 | $299,000 | 66 | $204,450 | $259,940 |
| June 2010 | 810 | $295,000 | 72 | $182,500 | $249,756 |
| May 2010 | 789 | $299,000 | 58 | $208,750 | $255,294 |
| April 2010 | 681 | $289,900 | 76 | $181,250 | $229,149 |
| Mar 2010 | 633 | $279,900 | 74 | $219,500 | $256,236 |
| Feb 2010 | 617 | $285,000 | 62 | $180,000 | $254,124 |
| Jan 2010 | 624 | $298,750 | 57 | $162,500 | $216,260 |
| Dec 2009 | 661 | $289,900 | 80 | $227,500 | $312,925 |
| Nov 2009 | 709 | $299,900 | 91 | $219,900 | $257,895 |
| Oct 2009 | 765 | $299,900 | 94 | $206,500 | $294,916 |
| Sept 2009 | 807 | $310,000 | 95 | $184,900 | $239,625 |
| Aug 2009 | 864 | $313,000 | 79 | $178,000 | $250,120 |
| July 2009 | 909 | $309,000 | 87 | $225,000 | $280,787 |
| June 2009 | 927 | $310,000 | 79 | $252,000 | $293,661 |
| May 2009 | 902 | $316,000 | 58 | $226,000 | $309,806 |
| April 2009 | 894 | $300,000 | 63 | $205,000 | $243,669 |
| Mar 2009 | 893 | $299,950 | 58 | $177,000 | $287,996 |
| Feb 2009 | 889 | $309,000 | 58 | $215,500 | $293,295 |
| Jan 2009 | 902 | $319,000 | 51 | $220,000 | $272,571 |
| Dec 2008 | 956 | $320,905 | 44 | $242,250 | $348,906 |
| Nov 2008 | 1032 | $325,000 | 50 | $240,287 | $329,953 |
Year to Date Comparison (1/1 – 11/30)
| Year | # of Homes Sold | Median Sales Price | Average Sales Price | Days on Market | List Price to Sales Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 791 | $195,000 | $251,915 | 118 | 95% |
| 2009 | 812 | $209,940 | $273,397 | 132 | 95% |
| 2008 | 625 | $253,000 | $330,201 | 136 | 94% |
| 2007 | 734 | $314,500 | $407,424 | 123 | 95% |
| 2006 | 1061 | $319,300 | $397,086 | 81 | 97% |
| 2005 | 1647 | $289,900 | $356,108 | 68 | 98% |
| 2004 | 1738 | $230,000 | $274,615 | 75 | 98% |
| 2003 | 1481 | $185,500 | $226,535 | 58 | 98% |
Year-to-Date comparisons – 2010 sales are lagging the 2009 numbers by 3%. Compared to 2008 however, sales are still up 27%. The median and average prices are down 7% & 8% respectively from 2009, while compared to 2008 – down 23% and 24% respectively. Today’s prices are still in the 03/04 range.
So, sales have slowed down a bit overall this year and prices are still low. And don’t expect big changes on that any time soon. Most experts are thinking we are going to be in a down market for several years to come.
Til next month,
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* Note: The charts above are updated on a monthly basis. They represent single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area or home sales not listed in the Big Bear MLS.
Related Articles
Big Bear Home Sales – October 2010
Big Bear Home Sales – September 2010 & Third Quarter 2010
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