Big Bear Home Sales
For the second month in a row, Big Bear home sales are near their two year high.
Home sales in October were down 3 % when compared to the September sales (94 v. 92), but were up 26% when compared to the same month last year (92 v. 73).
June thru October have been the strongest selling months we’ve seen during this down market. While it is still a lot slower than the middle part of the decade (we were selling 150-300 homes per month then), and this is typically the busiest time of the year for sales, increased sales is always a positive sign for any market.
It is important to keep in mind, however, if prices were higher, sales would be lower. Lower property values are fueling these sales.
31, or 34%, of the 92 home sales in Big Bear were bank owned, about 2% less than last month. 10 of the sales, or 11%, were short sales, which is 3% more than last month.
That means 51, or 55%, of the sales in October 2009 were “organic”, or traditional sellers – another strong month for them, though this number has been slowly decreasing.
Bank owned properties currently only make up 7% of what is for sale in Big Bear, yet they continue to make up between 30% to 40% of what is selling every month.
Big Bear Home Prices
The median sales price in October 2009 was on the rise for a second straight month. It rose 10% from the September number ($208,940 vs. $190,358), though it is still down 20% from the October 2008 median ($208,940 vs. $255,000).
While the median sales price is near the $200,000 mark, the median asking price for properties in Big Bear remains near $300,000 – still a big disconnect between these two prices.
I anticipate the median sales price will fluctuate as we head into the slower winter selling season, and with the sporadic numbers we’ve seen so far this year, it is hard to draw conclusions on what prices are going to do in Big Bear. My best guess – the lower end, under $300,000 or so has started to level off and should remain that way given limited inventory, while those properties priced around $500,000 and over still have some room, about 10-20%, to drop. Not until the large amount of homes in foreclosure get through the system (short sale, loan mod, or bank owned) will we start to see some price increase and equity build up for Big Bear home owners.
Homes Currently on the Market
The number of homes for sale continues to drop at a significant pace. Compared to last year, there are 29% less homes on the market for sale now. I hear all the time from people that it seems like everything is for sale in Big Bear. That is just not the case.
The limited selection of homes for sale is another factor that will help stop homes prices from dropping too much more.
As we head into the slower selling season in Big Bear it will be interesting to see if inventory on the market increases, which did not happen last year when sales dropped off. The lower the inventory number stays, the better off our real estate market will be.
Big Bear Home Sales – Thru October 2009
| Month and Year | # Homes For Sale | Median Asking Price | # Homes Sold | Median Sales Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2009 | 765 | $299,900 | 92 | $208,940 |
| Sept 2009 | 807 | $310,000 | 94 | $190,358 |
| Aug 2009 | 864 | $313,000 | 75 | $170,400 |
| July 2009 | 909 | $309,000 | 87 | $225,000 |
| June 2009 | 927 | $310,000 | 78 | $265,000 |
| May 2009 | 902 | $316,000 | 56 | $235,000 |
| April 2009 | 894 | $300,000 | 61 | $205,000 |
| Mar 2009 | 893 | $299,950 | 54 | $179,500 |
| Feb 2009 | 889 | $309,000 | 57 | $217,000 |
| Jan 2009 | 902 | $319,000 | 47 | $220,000 |
| Dec 2008 | 956 | $320,905 | 41 | $262,000 |
| Nov 2008 | 1032 | $325,000 | 50 | $240,287 |
| Oct 2008 | 1078 | $329,000 | 73 | $255,000 |
| Sept 2008 | 1109 | $328,500 | 82 | $224,500 |
| Aug 2008 | 60 | $282,500 | ||
| July 2008 | 62 | $205,000 | ||
| June 2008 | 62 | $247,500 | ||
| May 2008 | 67 | $290,000 | ||
| April 2008 | 50 | $299,500 | ||
| Mar 2008 | 1082 | $339,950 | 49 | $288,000 |
| Feb 2008 | 1049 | $345,000 | 34 | $249,950 |
| Jan 2008 | 1094 | $339,900 | 30 | $283,250 |
| Dec 2007 | 55 | $273,750 | ||
| Nov 2007 | 66 | $282,500 | ||
| Oct 2007 | 53 | $310,000 |
Year To Date Comparison (1/1- 10/31)
| Year | # of Homes Sold | Median Sales Price | Average Sales Price | Days on Market | List Price to Sales Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 718 | $207,750 | $275,570 | 129 | 95% |
| 2008 | 575 | $255,000 | $330,222 | 134 | 94% |
| 2007 | 668 | $315,000 | $412,510 | 123 | 95% |
| 2006 | 972 | $313,950 | $389,247 | 79 | 97% |
| 2005 | 1510 | $289,000 | $356,259 | 69 | 98% |
| 2004 | 1572 | $229,000 | $272,915 | 75 | 98% |
| 2003 | 1329 | $185,000 | $225,023 | 57 | 98% |
It is beginning to look more and more like 2007 and 2008 are going to be the bottom of the market for home sales in Big Bear. The bottom for prices however, will most likely be 2009, 2010, and possibly 2011.
Want more? Be sure to sign up for my email newsletter or RSS feed.
* Note: The charts above will be updated on a monthly basis. They represent single family home sales in the Big Bear area, including Big Bear Lake, Big Bear City, Moonridge, Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, Erwin Lake, & Fawnskin. Data courtesy of the Big Bear MLS. These numbers do not include raw land or condos nor does it include homes in the Big Bear MLS that are located out of the Big Bear area.
Related Articles
Big Bear Home Sales – September 2009 & Third Quarter 2009
Big Bear Home Sales – August 2009
Speak Your Mind