Given the amount of press coverage nationwide regarding the real estate market, I thought it would be informative to discuss the current real estate market conditions in Big Bear.
Big Bear has not been immune to the national sales statistics this year either. People see that homes are still selling and that prices are still high, and think that things still must be okay. The fact is that prices are still much higher than they were in 2000, but they are starting to level off and in some cases, drop. I think it is only a matter of time, if not already happening, before a noticeable price drop will be seen. I don’t anticipate a huge drop in prices, but I think it will probably be around 5-10%.
One of things that I have been keeping an eye on is the number of sales over the last 10 years. 2004 was the 2nd best year (just 21 sales shy of # 1 which was 2002) for the number of sales over the last 10 years. Looking at these numbers (Download 10_year_average_doc.xls [Excel doc. 1.6 MB] compliments of First American Title), it shows the Big Bear real estate market was already slowing down towards the beginning of 2005, which ended up 22% down in sales from 2004. To further show what the market is doing this year, 2006 has consistently been lower than the 2005 sales numbers on a per month basis. The 2006 sales activity is 24% down from the 2005 number year to date, and compared to the 2004 numbers, the market is down 44% year to date. All this and the prices are just starting to show a downward decline.
I have noticed over the last few months that sellers are starting to get a little bit more anxious when it comes to the market conditions. As a seller, it is more important now than ever to price the property correctly in the beginning, or face the risk of the market, the buyers and the agents rejecting the home. Buyers are looking at all the options now and they have definitely been listening to the news a little too much as many of them think the floor is caving in and prices are dropping drastically…..that has yet to be seen.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 6-12 months.
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